Machine Learning for Better Models for Predicting Bond Prices

Bond prices are a reflection of extremely complex market interactions and policies, making prediction of future prices difficult. This task becomes even more challenging due to the dearth of relevant information, and accuracy is not the only consideration--in trading situations, time is of the essence. Thus, machine learning in the context of bond price predictions should be both fast and accurate. In this course project, we use a dataset describing the previous 10 trades of a large number of bonds among other relevant descriptive metrics to predict future bond prices. Each of 762,678 bonds in the dataset is described by a total of 61 attributes, including a ground truth trade price. We evaluate the performance of various supervised learning algorithms for regression followed by ensemble methods, with feature and model selection considerations being treated in detail. We further evaluate all methods on both accuracy and speed. Finally, we propose a novel hybrid time-series aided machine learning method that could be applied to such datasets in future work.

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References (12)

01Benchmark Solutions, Benchmark Bond Trade Price Challenge2014
03Time Series Anaysis2010
04The Elements of Statistical Learning, Springer, 2nd Ed2009
07PCA in Supervised Learning
08Correlation Analysis: No attributes supplied are strongly correlated
09Hybrid Time-Series Methods Because each bond includes historical data on five different quantities for the last ten trading periods, we investigate the possibility of feature
10Step III Report the appropriate metric
11Feature Selection: An important aspect of this task is creating class-balanced training and test data sets while identifying appropriate metrics for assessment of prediction successCritical features are analyzed and extracted us-ing low order modeling techniques like Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis
12Step II Run Machine Learning Algorithm on each of these 5 training and test sets

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