Estimating Potential Outcome Distributions with Collaborating Causal Networks

. Estimation of outcome distributions via the CCN framework does not require restrictive assumptions of the underlying data generating process (e.g. Gaussian errors). Additionally, our proposed method facilitates estimation of the utility of each possible treatment and permits individual-specific variation through utility functions (e.g. risk tolerance variability). CCN not only extends outcome estimation beyond traditional risk difference, but also enables a more comprehensive decision making process through definition of flexible comparisons. Under assumptions commonly made in the causal inference literature, we show that CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture the correct potential outcome distributions. Furthermore, we propose an adjustment approach that is empirically effective in alleviating sample imbalance between treatment groups in observational studies. Finally, we evaluate the performance of CCN in multiple experiments on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data. We demonstrate that CCN learns improved distribution estimates compared to existing Bayesian and deep generative methods as well as improved decisions with respects to a variety of utility functions.

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