Calculating lexicase selection probabilities is NP-Hard

Lexicase selection is a state-of-the-art parent selection algorithm in evolutionary computation. Recently, there have been efforts to develop stronger theoretical analyses of lexicase selection. Many of these analysis hinge on calculating the probability of an individual solution being selected under lexicase selection. Discovering a fast way to perform this calculation would be very helpful to the development of theory regarding lexicase selection, and would also have implications for efforts to develop practical improvements to lexicase selection. Here, I prove that this problem of calculating selection probabilities under lexicase selection, which I name lex-prob, is NP-Hard. I achieve this proof by reducing SAT, a well-known NP-Hard problem, to lex-prob in polynomial time. This reduction involves an intermediate step in which a popular variant of lexicase selection, ∊-lexicase selection, is reduced to standard lexicase selection. This result also has deeper theoretical implications about the relationship between ∊-lexicase selection and lexicase selection and the relationship between lex-prob and other NP-Hard problems. Finally, I present a highly-optimized brute-force algorithm (and open-source implementation) for performing these calculations. While the worst-case time complexity of this solution is, of course, exponential it is capable of solving realistically-sized instances of the problem in approximately 15 seconds.

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