Summary
The paper proposes DiffTraj: a trajectory generation model based on probabilistic diffusion. The model is trained using real spatio-temporal trajectory data, and aims to generate new trajectories with similar characteristics. This is motivated by the purpose of preserving privacy information that may be present in the actual data. Like all diffusion-based models, the proposed model has a forward and a reverse process, and the latter has an U-Net component, whose importance is highlighted in the ablation studies. Contextual information such as the starting time and location can be provided as input to the model in an encoded form, using a neural network trained on the actual dataset. The influence of this contextual information on the generated data can be controlled by a parameter. It is shown that the trajectories generated by DiffTraj are statistically more similar to the original ones (in two datasets) compared to other trajectory generation models. It is also shown that the trajectories generated by DiffTraj can be used instead of the original trajectories to train models for downstream tasks such as inflow and outflow predictions from particular blocks in the cities.
Strengths
1) A new model DiffTraj is proposed for trajectory generation. It uses the currently popular probabilistic diffusion framework, but modifies it to bring in encoded contextual information, and an U-Net component in the reverse process to predict the noise levels for every next step
2) Good generative performance is shown, where the trajectories generated by this approach are shown to be statistically more similar to the original ones compared to those generated by other methods
3) The authors explore various practical uses of their model, such as downstream tasks (eg. inflow/outflow prediction), transfer learning (training model on one city and adapting it to another) etc
Weaknesses
1) The model considers all trajectories as IID and does not aim to utilize any notion of "trajectory clustering" into their model. [In their defence, the encoded contextual information may carry such clues]
2) The downstream task experiment is introduced almost as an afterthought, though such tasks seem to be the main motivation for the work. Also, these experiments seem to be incomplete [see questions below]
3) The model includes U-Net as an important component for the reverse process, and its success is highlighted through ablation studies. But the exact role or contribution of the U-Net is not discussed
4) The evaluation metrics used seem to be based mainly on spatial aspects, not temporal aspects
Overall, I like the broad idea of the paper. I am willing to improve my ratings if the authors can address my concerns.
Questions
1) I would expect the trajectories in any city to have "clustering" tendencies, some origins and destinations maybe "hotspots", some road segments (eg. highways) maybe "hotspots", etc. Similarly, there may be peak hours of trajectories. Or, certain types of trajectories may be more common in certain hours of the day (eg. those heading to downtown office areas during morning hours). Do you think DiffTraj can produce these features in their simulations?
2) If not, is it possible to incorporate them into the model somehow?
3) Can we have evaluation metrics based on time and velocity, instead of only space-based measures (trip error, length error etc)?
4) In the downstream experiment, it is shown that various models perform almost equally when trained using the generated data instead of the actual data. But to really make the point, it should be shown that these models would have performed less well had they been trained with trajectories generated by some other baseline models
5) What is the exact role played by the U-Net in the reverse process? Could any other architecture not have played the same role?
6) If we want trajectories for a particular downstream task, can we get better results if we can use task-specific loss functions while training?
7) What do the figures in Fig2 convey? Are they obtained by overlaying a set of trajectories?
Rating
7: Accept: Technically solid paper, with high impact on at least one sub-area, or moderate-to-high impact on more than one areas, with good-to-excellent evaluation, resources, reproducibility, and no unaddressed ethical considerations.
Confidence
4: You are confident in your assessment, but not absolutely certain. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work.