Provable convergence guarantees for black-box variational inference

Black-box variational inference is widely used in situations where there is no proof that its stochastic optimization succeeds. We suggest this is due to a theoretical gap in existing stochastic optimization proofs: namely the challenge of gradient estimators with unusual noise bounds, and a composite non-smooth objective. For dense Gaussian variational families, we observe that existing gradient estimators based on reparameterization satisfy a quadratic noise bound and give novel convergence guarantees for proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent using this bound. This provides rigorous guarantees that methods similar to those used in practice converge on realistic inference problems.

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Peer review

Reviewer vBBM7/10 · confidence 3/52023-07-03

Summary

This paper offers the first convergence results for black-box VI, a widely used and popular framework for Bayesian problems. Under assumptions on the log model, $\log p$, and given a Gaussian variational family of distributions, convergence rates are established by utilizing recent advances in the field. The assumptions are motivated by giving practical examples of when they are satisfied.

Strengths

This work seems to lay the missing puzzle piece in a series of works towards establishing convergence rates for black-box VI. As such, it is clearly original, and it is significant as black-box VI is widely used in practice and is a popular research topic. Although the results build on seemingly strong assumptions on the log model, $\log p$, the significance of the results is emphasized by exemplifying broad classes of problem settings where the assumptions are satisfied, which deserves credit. I believe this paper will be of interest to the NeurIPS community. The paper follows a clear line of argument and builds up to its results in a pedagogical manner, giving a convincing account of the existing, related works.

Weaknesses

**W1**: $C$ is a matrix (line 63), but in line 120 I read it as $C = 0$, by inspecting $\bar{w} = (\bar{m}, 0)$. It is not clear to me what this means. Are all elements in the covariance matrix zero (since $\Sigma = C C^T$)? **W2**: In Sec. 2.1 I read it as, if $\log p$ is $M$-smooth then we can expect that the optimal covariance parameter for $q_w$ should not be too small. This makes sense to me. In fact they should be at least $1 / \sqrt{M}$ as shown in Domke's previous work. However in Theorem 2, where the log-target is assumed to be $M$-smooth, it says that $\bar{w}=(\bar{m}, 0)$ is the "maximum of $\log p$". I am confused about this. Doesn't $\bar{w}$ here imply that $\log p$ is not smooth, and that the optimal parameters $w^* = \bar{w}$, i.e. $C^* = 0 < 1 / \sqrt{M}$? If I am helped clear up this confusion, I am willing to raise my score. **W3:** I am not sure how the discussion about the score-type estimator in Eq. 4 contributes to the paper. The results in paper are based on the reparameterization trick (i.e. the path-type estimator in Eq. 5), no? What is the contribution of this discussion to the results in the paper? **Minor issues** In line 16, $h$ is called the entropy, but as it is defined in Eq. 1 and 15 it is the neg-entropy. Sometimes (e.g. in the Central contributions box and on line 93) $q_w$ is referred to a family of distributions and sometimes (line 243) it is used a density. In VI the "family" is often meant as the set of distributions in which we want to find the optimal approximation, no? So can it really be a family and a distribution simultaneously? Perhaps it is more clear if $\mathcal{Q}_w$ is used to notate the family of Gaussian distributions parameterized by $w$? Typo: * line 35: objective is misspelled * line 141: "that bar" seems to be a typo

Questions

* In Sec. 2.1 it stated that $h$ is $M$-smooth over the set $\mathcal{W}_M$. Based on this, do you make any assumptions on $q_w$ other than it being Gaussian? I was expecting some new assumption given the title of the section, but maybe this is a "structural property"? * Out of curiosity, could you expand on the constructed problem where the variance of the path-based estimator is "vastly" increased and the score-based estimator is not? Where is the noise added? To $\phi$?

Rating

7: Accept: Technically solid paper, with high impact on at least one sub-area, or moderate-to-high impact on more than one areas, with good-to-excellent evaluation, resources, reproducibility, and no unaddressed ethical considerations.

Confidence

3: You are fairly confident in your assessment. It is possible that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work. Math/other details were not carefully checked.

Soundness

3 good

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

4 excellent

Limitations

The assumptions are clearly highlighted and discussed in the paper.

Reviewer gXey8/10 · confidence 4/52023-07-04

Summary

This paper offers a convergence proof for the stochastic optimization problem inherent in full-rank Gaussian variational inference when the log-density of the target is concave. The primary challenge of the convergence proof lies in managing the non-smoothness present in the entropy term of Gaussian VI. This issue is addressed in the current work by considering proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent. To evaluate the validity of the imposed assumptions, case studies involving Bayesian (generalized) linear regression problems are provided.

Strengths

I appreciate the clarity of the writing of the present work; it clearly descibes the scope of the problem studied and states the main challenge of showing the convergence. The layout of each section forms a smooth flow of the proof strategies, in addition to a nice organization of the mathematical proofs, which makes the reading enjoyable. The case study provided in appendix (sec 7.3) is helpful for reasoning imposed assaumptions. The proximal operator introduced for optimizing the covariance matrix is novel to me. Although it's a standard techniques in optimization literature---splitting non-strongly smooth (but closed convex) part of the objective function using proximal operator, it's the first time I see in Gaussian VI literature. (This could of course be due to my lack of knowledge in this field) Additionally, the weighted telescope summation used when $-logp$ is only convex(rather than strongly convex) is very interesting, which is a setting that rarely considered in literature as far as I'm aware. Even though the paper limits the scope to dense Gaussian VI problem, I think the present techniques can be applied to general location-scale variational families (as long as the variance quadratic bounds still holds).

Weaknesses

In my view, the principal limitation of this work is the somewhat restricted scope of the Variational Inference (VI) problem it examines. Specifically, the variational family under consideration is: (1.) Gaussian (albeit full-rank), and (2.) the target distribution is log-concave or strongly-log-concave. Additionally, (3.) data subsampling on $\log p$ is not taken into account. The proof techniques necessitated by this setting, in my opinion, are fairly standard within the stochastic optimization literature. While I acknowledge that any relaxation of condition (2) would likely preclude anything beyond convergence to some stationary point, and that the quadratic variance bound is heavily reliant on condition (1) (which is probably not a major concern for the broader community in regards to more complex VI families), offering a convergence result when data subsampling is implemented could greatly increase the impact of this work. I would be inclined to raise the score to 8 if data subsampling was considered, or if existing proof techniques could easily address it (though I doubt the current approach is effective in this case, please correct me if I'm mistaken). Regarding originality, even though I concur that explicit results may be lacking for this specific problem setting, I don't think this is the **first** optimization theory guarantee for full-rank Gaussian VI. For instance, [Xu & Campbell, 2022] studies the convergence of full-rank Gaussian VI without the assumption of a log-concave target (even though they utilize posterior asymptotics to somewhat reduce the underlying optimization problem on a strongly-log-concave target, they also employ a special scaling operator (Eq(8)) to handle the non-Lip-smoothness of the entropy term $\log \text{det}$). I recommend that the authors integrate an optimization analysis of the scaled stochastic gradient descent proposed in [Xu & Campbell, 2022], and carefully compare the results to those provided in [Xu & Campbell, 2022] within a strongly convex setting at least (ignoring the data asymptotics and merely assuming that $\log p$ is strongly-log-concave should align their work with the current setting). Finally, I encourage the authors to provide additional case studies, perhaps involving more Bayesian GLMs or even Bayesian sparse regression with a Horseshoe prior. From what I understand, most of these models yield a log-concave target, but the application of the variance quadratic bound is unclear to me. If negative results were to appear, for example, some models not having a quadratically bounded gradient noise, these examples would still significantly benefit the community. At the end, I hope to stress that despite the aforementioned weakness/limitations, I think this is a really good work for this niche research direction. Reference: [Xu&Campbell, 2022]: The computational asymptotics of Gaussian variational inference and the Laplace approximation, Statistics and Computing

Questions

1. Compare to [Xu&Campbell, 2022]: As I mentioned earlier, this is a very relavant past work on this topic. I wonder specifically, if we ignore all the asymptotic stuff and assumes $\log p$ is strongly-log-concave, does [Xu&Campbell, 2022] achieve similar convergence rate ($O(1/T)$) as the present paper? 2. I wonder if the proximal operator (line 264) has been noted in past VI literature? Or it is proposed by the author.

Rating

8: Strong Accept: Technically strong paper, with novel ideas, excellent impact on at least one area, or high-to-excellent impact on multiple areas, with excellent evaluation, resources, and reproducibility, and no unaddressed ethical considerations.

Confidence

4: You are confident in your assessment, but not absolutely certain. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work.

Soundness

4 excellent

Presentation

4 excellent

Contribution

3 good

Limitations

See Weakness

Reviewer biC87/10 · confidence 2/52023-07-08

Summary

The paper proves 1/sqrt(T) respectively 1/T convergence rates for black-box variational inference methods, when implemented with a proximal stochastic gradient method. Such rates were not available in the literature until now, due to difficulties in bounding the gradient noise. The main contribution of the paper is to prove new bounds on the gradient noise and incorporate them into the proof techniques for proximal SGD.

Strengths

The paper is well-written and clearly states its contributions. While the topic seems rather narrow, the technical part of the paper appears to be a novel and non-trivial result.

Weaknesses

1) The paper solves a quite "narrow" problem, that is fixing some gaps in existing convergence proofs for variational inference. It is unclear whether this work will be of interest to the wider ICML community, as it is a niche topic, and the theory does not seem to directly suggest any practical improvements or changes. 2) BBVI is sometimes less preferable in practice than natural-gradient algorithms. These methods use the KL / Fisher-geometry (https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.04562). This line of works could be mentioned in the introduction. 3) There has been some recent works https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.15902 https://proceedings.mlr.press/v202/diao23a.html which prove convergence for BBVI-like algorithms by interpreting them as Wasserstein gradient flow. Perhaps these works could be mentioned.

Questions

1) Which algorithm would be preferable in practice, prox-SGD or proj-SGD? From the theory side, it seems they have similar convergence rates, but maybe there are other things to take into consideration?

Rating

7: Accept: Technically solid paper, with high impact on at least one sub-area, or moderate-to-high impact on more than one areas, with good-to-excellent evaluation, resources, reproducibility, and no unaddressed ethical considerations.

Confidence

2: You are willing to defend your assessment, but it is quite likely that you did not understand the central parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work. Math/other details were not carefully checked.

Soundness

3 good

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

2 fair

Limitations

All limitations are addressed.

Reviewer 6P4Y6/10 · confidence 4/52023-07-15

Summary

The paper addresses the lack of provable convergence guarantees for black-box variational inference (VI) and proposes convergence guarantees for two stochastic optimization algorithms applied to Gaussian variational families. The authors identify challenges in analyzing VI as a standard stochastic optimization problem, including the non-smoothness of the objective function, lack of uniform smoothness, and lack of uniformly bounded noise for gradient estimators. They provide theoretical results and noise bounds for two gradient estimators and propose proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent algorithms. I did not find technical flaws.

Strengths

1. The paper addresses an important problem by providing provable convergence guarantees for black-box VI, which is widely used but lacks theoretical guarantees. 2. The authors clearly articulate the challenges in analyzing VI as a standard stochastic optimization problem, such as the non-smoothness of the objective function and the lack of uniform smoothness and noise bounds. The paper provides rigorous theoretical results and noise bounds for gradient estimators used in black-box VI. 3. The paper is well written. It provides a comprehensive and coherent review of the literature and clearly presents the technical contributions and proof ideas. I'm not a theory guy but I enjoy reading the paper.

Weaknesses

1. I wonder if is it possible to perform some simple (even toy) examples to empirically check the results and illustrate the theory in a better way. 2. The dense Gaussian family is still limited (at least in my opinion). It is better to discuss whether the techniques developed in the paper can be applied to more general cases (e.g., black-box variational inference with a neural network model) or at least discuss the challenges.

Questions

See weakness.

Rating

6: Weak Accept: Technically solid, moderate-to-high impact paper, with no major concerns with respect to evaluation, resources, reproducibility, ethical considerations.

Confidence

4: You are confident in your assessment, but not absolutely certain. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work.

Soundness

3 good

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

3 good

Limitations

None.

Reviewer TUBr5/10 · confidence 3/52023-07-27

Summary

This paper analyzed the convergence of Black-box VI, which has been widely used in variational inference in recent years. Under the assumption that the target joint distribution is convex or strongly convex and the variational posterior distribution is Gaussian, the convergence of the variational parameter obtained by Black-box VI to the ELBO optimal solution is first presented when using Prox-GD and Projected Gradient Descent. An important aspect of the analysis of Black-box VI is that the gradient is stochastic. To deal with this, the authors introduced a class of quadratically bounded estimators as estimators of the gradient and combined them appropriately with the existing Prox-GD analysis.

Strengths

Although the proposed analysis makes a number of assumptions, the results are significant in that they include an important Bayesian model that is used in practice. For the first time, an analysis of the convergence of Black-box VI is presented, albeit with a rather limited problem, such as the assumption of variational posterior distribution as Gaussian distribution.

Weaknesses

It was very difficult to understand how novel and important the proposed analysis is from a single reading. In existing studies, each component of the presented analysis is already well known, but I am not sure how important and novel the presented VI analysis is as the combination of those well-known results. By assumption, since the objective function is convex (or strongly convex), the convergence using Prox SGD or other methods seems apparent, the difficulty of the problem stems from the noisy version of the gradient, as discussed in Sec 2.3. On the other hand, as there have been many studies discussing noisy versions of prox GD, such as Stochastic Proximal Gradient Descent[1], so I am not sure how novel this analysis is. In the proofs of Theorem 6 and 7, I understood that the novelty is mainly the technique to treat the gradient estimator that satisfies the quadratic bounded property shown in Definition 4. However, I still did not understand how important it is compared to existing studies such as the Stochastic Proximal Gradient Descent study. [1]Convergence of Stochastic Proximal Gradient Algorithm, L. Rosasco et al.

Questions

I would like to know more about the novelty of this study in the context of Stochastic Proximal Gradient Descent in terms of technical aspects and assumptions of the proof.

Rating

5: Borderline accept: Technically solid paper where reasons to accept outweigh reasons to reject, e.g., limited evaluation. Please use sparingly.

Confidence

3: You are fairly confident in your assessment. It is possible that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work. Math/other details were not carefully checked.

Soundness

3 good

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

3 good

Limitations

Yes, the limitations of the statements are clearly explained.

Reviewer 6P4Y2023-08-14

Thanks for your reply. I'm happy for the clarifications regarding how the theory applies to more general cases. I will keep my score but will increase my confidence.

Reviewer gXey2023-08-14

Thank you for your reply. I believe the authors response has addressed all of my questions properly, so I'd love to raise the score to 8. However, I found a mistake in the proof of Lemma 28, which could potentially cause some issue. Line 670 reads: $$\frac{1}{1-\theta^T} \leq \frac{1}{(1-\theta) T} = ...$$ Here $\theta:=\frac{1}{1+B \gamma^2} \in (0, 1)$. Note that the LHS of the above inequality converges to $1$ as $T\to \infty$, while the RHS converges to $0$, which is incorrect. Although I don't think the proof is not fixable -- intuitively Lemma 8 gives the sensible rate, it's important to have the proof corrected since Lemma 28 is a key step for convergence results in convex cases (Thm7 and Thm 10), which I consider to be the key contribution of the paper. Therefore, I'll keep my current score. If the proof is fixed, I'll update the score to 8, otherwise I'll reduce the score to 6.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-16

Fixed issue

Dear Reviewer, thank you very much for spotting this mistake in the proof. Fortunately, it is easy to fix (we provide details for you below) and this fix has no consequences on the results, besides a few multiplicative constants being modified. The key is to prove that $1/(1-\theta^T)$ will be less than 2, provided $T \geq 2$ and that the stepsize is taken as $\gamma= A/\sqrt{T}$, for an appropriate choice of A. This is encapsulated in the revised Lemma which is below in a separate comment below.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-16

Lemma 28 (revised)

Suppose we are given a sequence $\bar{w}^T$ and constants $a,b,B>0$ such that $$ E[f(\bar{w}^T)]-\inf f \leq \gamma \left(\frac{a\|w^0-w^*\|^{2}}{1-\theta^{T}}+b\right) $$ holds for $$ \theta := \\frac{1}{1+B\gamma^{2}}. $$ If $\gamma=\frac{A}{\sqrt{T}}$ for $A \geq \sqrt{\frac{2}{B}}$ and $T \geq 2$, then $$ E[f(\bar{w}^T)]-\inf f \leq \frac{A}{\sqrt{T}}(2a\| w^0-w^*\|^2 +b).$$ Thus, $T=\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ iterations are sufficient to guarantee that $E[f(\bar{w}^{T})]-\inf f\leq\epsilon.$ The proof is in the next comment **Note:** We note that once applied to the VI problem, this means that the stepsize $\gamma$ must be taken equal to $\gamma= 1/\sqrt{aT}$ for ProxSGD, and $\gamma= \sqrt{2/aT}$ for ProjSGD.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-16

Proof of Lemma 28

Proof: First we show that $\frac{1}{1-\theta^T} \leq 2$ is equivalent to \begin{equation} T \geq \frac{\log 2}{\log(1+BA^2/T)}. \end{equation} Indeed this follows since \begin{align*} \frac{1}{1-\theta^T} &\leq 2 \quad \Leftrightarrow \\\\ \theta^T & \leq \frac{1}{2} \quad \Leftrightarrow \\\\ % T \log \theta & \leq \log \frac{1}{2} \quad \Leftrightarrow \\\\ T & \geq \frac{\log 2}{\log 1/\theta} \quad \Leftrightarrow \\\\ T & \geq \frac{\log 2}{\log (1+B\gamma^2)} \quad \Leftrightarrow \\\\ T & \geq \frac{\log 2}{\log (1+BA^2/T)}. \end{align*} Now note that $\log(1+x)\geq \frac{x}{1+x}$ for $x \geq 0$, which implies that $\frac{1}{\log(1+x)}\leq 1+\frac{1}{x}$ for $x \geq 0$. Applying this gives that \begin{eqnarray*} \frac{1}{\log(1+BA^2/T)} \leq 1 + \frac{T}{BA^2}. \end{eqnarray*} So to guarantee $\frac{1}{1-\theta^T} \leq 2$, from the above it is sufficient to enforce that \begin{eqnarray*} T & \geq & 1 + \frac{T}{BA^2}\\ &\geq & \log (2) \left( 1 + \frac{T}{BA^2} \right). \\ \end{eqnarray*} Since we assumed that $A \geq \sqrt{2/B}$, this last condition holds if \begin{equation} T \geq 1 + \frac{1}{BA^2-1}. \end{equation} Again using our assumption $BA^2 \geq 2$ we have that $\frac{1}{BA^2-1} \leq 1$ thus it is sufficient to impose that $T \geq 2.$ Substituting $\gamma = \frac{A}{\sqrt{T}}$ and the relaxation $\frac{1}{1-\theta^T} \leq 2$ into the original bound gives the claimed result. End of Proof.

Reviewer gXey2023-08-16

The result looks good to me. I'll increase the score then.

Reviewer vBBM2023-08-15

Response to rebuttal

Thank you for the clarifications provided in the rebuttal. Especially I appreciated the clarifications and the example regarding the score-type estimator and the variance of the path-based estimator. Now that I can more clearly see the point of the discussion, I think it makes a nice point why the assumption of an M-smooth log-density is important. I would be glad if it was somehow included in the discussion section. I will increase my score to 7 if the issue in the proof raised by gXey is fixed.

Reviewer biC82023-08-17

Thanks for the detailed answer! Regarding Diao et al. necessarily requiring Hessians, this is not true. An expectation over Hessians can always be rewritten as expectation over gradients (via reparametrization trick).

Reviewer TUBr2023-08-18

Thank you for the detailed clarification. My concerns are now solved. I will increase the contribution score.

Program Chairsdecision2023-09-21

Decision

Accept (poster)

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