Selecting Large Language Model to Fine-tune via Rectified Scaling Law

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with Scaling Law. Unlike pre-training, we find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known"power phase"but also the previously unobserved"pre-power phase". We also explain why existing Scaling Law fails to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of"pre-learned data size"into our Rectified Scaling Law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection. The project page is available at rectified-scaling-law.github.io.