Adaptive stratified Monte Carlo using decision trees

It has been known for a long time that stratification is one possible strategy to obtain higher convergence rates for the Monte Carlo estimation of integrals over the hypercube [0,1]s\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$[0, 1]^s$$\end{document} of dimension s. However, stratified estimators such as Haber’s are not practical as s grows, as they require O(ks)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {O}(k^s)$$\end{document} evaluations for some k≥2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$k\ge 2$$\end{document}. We propose an adaptive stratification strategy, where the strata are derived from a decision tree applied to a preliminary sample. We show that this strategy leads to higher convergence rates, that is the corresponding estimators converge at rate O(N-1/2-r)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {O}(N^{-1/2-r})$$\end{document} for some r>0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$r>0$$\end{document} for certain classes of functions. Empirically, we show through numerical experiments that the method may improve on standard Monte Carlo even when s is large.

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