Qualitative Mechanism Independence

We define what it means for a joint probability distribution to be compatible with a set of independent causal mechanisms, at a qualitative level -- or, more precisely, with a directed hypergraph ${\mathcal{A}}$, which is the qualitative structure of a probabilistic dependency graph (PDG). When ${\mathcal{A}}$ represents a qualitative Bayesian network, QIM-compatibility with ${\mathcal{A}}$ reduces to satisfying the appropriate conditional independencies. But giving semantics to hypergraphs using QIM-compatibility lets us do much more. For one thing, we can capture functional dependencies. For another, we can capture important aspects of causality using compatibility: we can use compatibility to understand cyclic causal graphs, and to demonstrate structural compatibility, we must essentially produce a causal model. Finally, QIM-compatibility has deep connections to information theory. Applying our notion to cyclic structures helps to clarify a longstanding conceptual issue in information theory.

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Peer review

Reviewer b6Hm7/10 · confidence 3/52024-06-18

Summary

The paper considers the framework of directed hypergraphs and demonstrates how it can be used to represent the structural properties of probability distributions. Inspired by the successes of Bayesian networks (which are essentially DAGs), they generalize the findings from the perspective of directed hypergraphs. The key innovation seems to be that instead of simply understanding conditional dependencies (or more specific context-specific indepdencies), the framework goes beyond to consider functional dependencies and understand thesein greater depth. The idea is to use these probabilisitic dependency graphs as formulations to define the idea of QIM (qualtiatively independent mechanism) compatibility of a distribution w.r.t a hypergraph. Once the QIM compatibility is defined, the paper proceeds to demonstrate its usefulness in two specific settings - causal models and information theory. Specifically, it establishess the equivalence between QIM compatibility and randomzized probabilistic structural equation models (PSEMs). The key result in this direction is presented in Proposition 4 where it presents a natural generalization of causal model that exactly captures QIM compatibilitywith an arbitrary hypergraph. In addition, the paper considers the correspondence between QIM compatibility and interventions in causal models. Finally, it takes a deeper dive into discussing the relation between information theory and QIM compatibility by defining a qualitative scoring function for probabilisitic dependency graphs. The key idea here is to show how one can measure how far a distribution is QIM compatible with a hypergraph structure.

Strengths

Over all, this is a well written paper. Albeit quite dense, the paper is indeed worth publishing for the community. It was quite insightful read and the paper clearly layes out the problem and the solutions. Clearly written for a niche community, the paper does convey what it aims to do -- the value of probabilistic hyerpgraphs in deeply understanding the causal models and the connection to information theory. I q2uite like the paper.

Weaknesses

While the paper is excellent, I do have a few concerns/questions: * I am not sure I clearly see what the contributions of the current paper are w.r.t the literature. For instance, as the paper mentions., Richardson and Halpern had already defined PDGs but you have redefined it in Definition 1. This is perfectly fine if this section is a background section but the way it is written, it appears that it is part of the contributions. It would be great to separate out where teh prior work and background ends and where the paper begins. I assumed that it ends around line 94 and the paper's contributions start from Definition 2. Is this correct? * As the paper itself mentions, I do not see the need for Proposition 3. It kinda directly follows from Theorem 1 and so why have it separately when the value is not clear? * While I clearly like the information theory part more (since the scoring function is quite intuitive at the end due to the definition of QIM compatibility), I would have liked to see some practical use cases. I would have liked to see a specific discussion on the types of settings/problems where such situations are plausible/common. Specifically, what kind of interventions are possible (may be in specific domains). * Some analysis on the computational complexity of these scoring functions would be nice as well. Over all, a good paper but can be made a bit more acecssible with some real examples.

Questions

Please see the weaknesses for specific questions about theorems, definitions and the delination between prior and proposed contributions.

Rating

7

Confidence

3

Soundness

4

Presentation

3

Contribution

3

Limitations

Some real examples could be used for motivation.

Reviewer 3P8H4/10 · confidence 4/52024-07-11

Summary

The paper presents a formalism that is claimed to extend the qualitative structure of probabilistic dependency graphs.

Strengths

I think it might be original, but it is difficult to tell. It might be potentially significant, but it isn't clear what the significance might be.

Weaknesses

It is not clear what problem this solves (or does better than other proposals). It claims to be "do much more", but it isn't clear what the much more is. The semantics needs to be presented in a much more straightforward way. In example 4, you ask "are there distributions not compatible...? It is not obvious." The answer is yes. The parity function X \equiv (Y \equiv Z) that is true when an even number of X,Y,Z are true, is not compatible. They are each a function of the other two but are independent of either one.

Questions

What is the problem that this is a solution to? What can this do (or do better) that other proposals cannot do? You highlight that this is a hypergraph rather than a DAG in a belief network. What does the hypergraph let us do that a Bayesian network does not? (In a Bayesian network, all of the parents affect the child; your's allows multiple targets.) Can a node be in multiple targets? If so, what if different mechanisms result in different values? If not, isn't having a mechanism that produces multiple targets trivially equivalent to multiple mechanisms that produce single targets? For Example 3 with Boolean variables, the bidirectional arrow (X <-> Y) has 4 parameters, but there are only 3 degrees of freedom. Almost all parameterizations are inconsistent. For one of the inconsistent parameterizations, does it define a distribution? If so, which one?

Rating

4

Confidence

4

Soundness

2

Presentation

1

Contribution

1

Limitations

I don't think it has any societal impacts, positive or negative. There are very few limitations to the work done.

Reviewer 3P8H2024-08-12

reply

There are many generalizarions of directed causal networks to include constraints (see e.g., the books and papers of Rina Dechter) and cycles (typically taken as the equilibrium distribution of a Markov chain; for example https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9868.00340, https://jmlr.csail.mit.edu/papers/volume1/heckerman00a/heckerman00a.pdf, https://www.ijcai.org/Proceedings/13/Papers/161.pdf). I thought the parity example was an obvious counter-example; because the variable was independent of each of the other variables, that it was clear. One theoretical justification is in terms of the Hadamard transform (or the discrete Fourier); one reference where this is applied to graphical models is https://proceedings.mlr.press/v22/buchman12.html The cycle loses the high frequency terms (the one needed for the parity term).

Authorsrebuttal2024-08-12

> There are many generalizarions of directed causal networks to include constraints (see e.g., the books and papers of Rina Dechter) and cycles (typically taken as the equilibrium distribution of a Markov chain; for example https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9868.00340, https://jmlr.csail.mit.edu/papers/volume1/heckerman00a/heckerman00a.pdf, https://www.ijcai.org/Proceedings/13/Papers/161.pdf). It is true that many have considered generalizations of directed causal networks to include cycles and constraints, and we are aware of the references you point out. (In fact, we cut a discussion of Heckerman's dependency networks to streamline the story.) Yet none of these papers provide a satisfying answer to what these models mean at a qualitative level. (Heckerman shows that "consistent" DNs capture the same distributions as undirected graphical models, but this characterization only applies to special structures.) For acyclic models, there is an obvious answer: the structure implies certain independencies. But what is the analogue for a cyclic model? What can you say about the stationary distribution of a Markov chain? To answer this question you have to be more precise about what Markov chain you're talking about. In order to define an equilibrium semantics as you suggest (or indeed, to even formally define a Markov Chain for a cyclic network in which the state is a joint distribution), it is necessary to make a structural choice, that in a sense, breaks the symmetry promised by a cyclic representation. This choice can be made in the form of a sampling order (as is an important point in the Heckerman (2000) and Poole&Crowley (2013) papers you reference), or a cut set (as in the Baier et. al. (2022) paper that we reference). Either choice amounts to a selection of qualitative information that is not present in the underlying graph, and often swept under the rug. It is not hard to show that a choice of sampling order actually induces a *BN's* independencies, and therefore this approach does not say anything interesting about cyclic models at a qualitative level. We also point out that Poole and Crowley paper you reference states that there "seem to be three solutions to causal modeling with cycles: (1) do not allow cycles, (2) make noise dependent, or (3) use a different (non-causal) semantics". Yet our approach uses causal semantics with independent noise, and allows for cycles! > I thought the parity example was an obvious counter-example; because the variable was independent of each of the other variables, that it was clear. One theoretical justification is in terms of the Hadamard transform (or the discrete Fourier); one reference where this is applied to graphical models is https://proceedings.mlr.press/v22/buchman12.html The cycle loses the high frequency terms (the one needed for the parity term). We too found the parity distribution to be an obvious candidate for a counter-example. Yet, as mentioned in our response, we found it (surprisingly) difficult to establish that there could be no witness satisfying the properties of our definition. While we understand that the Hadamard and discrete Fourier transforms are intimately related to parity systems, we do not see any way to apply them to demonstrate a lack of QIM-compatibility. Your intuition that a cycle should "lose high-frequency terms" concords with ours; indeed, such an argument can be used to show that the parity distribution $\mu_{\mathrm{xor}}$ cannot be written as $\mu_{\mathrm{xor}}(X,Y,Z) = f_1(X,Y) f_2(Y,Z) f_3(Z,X)$, for any choice of $f_1,f_2,f_3$. Yet despite having these intuitions, we still were very surprised how difficult it was to provide a formal proof that the parity distribution is not QIM-compatible (in the sense of Definition 2) with the 3-cycle. Fortunately (in our opinion), the effort paid off in the general case: the information-theoretic test for QIM-compatibility with the 3-cycle is entirely novel, quite different from more standard spectral arguments (or those that rest on polynomial degrees), and has also helped to clarify the meaning of interaction information.

Reviewer wE8z7/10 · confidence 4/52024-07-19

Summary

The paper studies notions of "compatibility" between probability distributions and directed hypergraphs with causal mechanisms. In such a hypergraph, we have (roughly) hyperedges T ---> S annotated by a latent/exogenous variable U where the variables S are functionally determined by the variables T and U. Bayesian networks can be naturally formulated in such terms (where T is the set of parents and S is a singleton set containing the child, and U is a (local) causal mechanism). The paper explores notions of "compatibility" with a joint distribution (over say endogenous variables) and such a hypergraph with additional causal mechanisms. "Compatibility" here means that there exists an realization of the hypergraph that matches a given distribution. The paper shows that this notion of compatibility can: 1) characterize the conditional independencies of a distribution and a DAG 2) based on hypergraph structure, can represent some functional dependencies (unlike DAGs) 3) characterize (probabilistic) structural equation models (SEMs) for a graph 4) characterize generalized (probabilistic) SEMS for hypergraphs 5) given a (witness) distribution for a class of hypergraphs, can reconstruct its PSEM (up to a family of PSEMs) 6) and, from (5), also characterize its interventional distrbution 7) compatibility implies a negative "information deficiency" 8) be characterized with a QIM incompatibility score based on information theoretic entropy 9) which, from (8), can also be upper- and lower-bounded (note: my summary may be over-simplifying). Correspondingly, notions of independence, causality and information theory are tied together through the notion of compatibility.

Strengths

The paper is ambitious, and seeks to tie together central ideas from independence, causality, and information theory into a notion of distribution compatibility with a hypergraph over causal mechanisms. In addition, there are some generalizations made from (causal) DAGs and SEMs to hypergraphs. I appreciate that the authors regularly included examples throughout the paper, which makes things easier to follow, and also helps to motivate the discussion.

Weaknesses

At times, the claims of the paper seem overstated. The first half of the results are familiar from (causal) DAGs. For example, the claim after Proposition 3, mentions a phenomena relating randomized SEMs and BNs as possibly not being formalized previously. I believe, for one example, that the following paper talks about this connection: "Causality in Bayesian belief networks" Marek Druzdzel, Herbert Simon in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1993. I also found the paper relatively dense, with many results given. I believe there is a central theme of compatibility tying together concepts of independence, causality and information theory. Some of the other results, for example, the characeterization of some functional dependencies through hypergraph edges --- this seems more like an extra result that does not clearly support the main story (in my opinion), or it is otherwise under-explored given the space constraints.

Questions

none

Rating

7

Confidence

4

Soundness

3

Presentation

2

Contribution

3

Limitations

n/a

Reviewer 91DJ7/10 · confidence 2/52024-07-19

Summary

This paper establishes a notion of "QIM compatibility" between the functional dependences and the joint distribution through the directed hypergraph. The functional dependence is a general notion of dependences containing conditional independences.

Strengths

I want to state that my understanding of this paper is partial, given that I have a limited knowledge and understanding on the computational logic theory where this paper might reside in. I am from causal inference field. --- 1. This paper is technically precise. All mathematical terminologies are carefully chosen, and the degree of ambiguity is minimized. 2. I think this theory has a lot of potentials in providing a graphical tool for describing functional dependences. Despite the wide usage of the causal graph, it's known that the graph is only suitable for expressing conditional independences. Even if the causal graph also carries functional independences (called "Verma's constraints" described exemplified in Question section), such constraints are not explicitly shown in the graph. I think the proposed framework has a potential of explicitly revealing such hidden constraints from the graph.

Weaknesses

I want to state that my understanding of this paper is partial, given that I have a limited knowledge and understanding on the computational logic theory where this paper might reside in. I am from causal inference field. --- __Lack of preliminaries__ I felt difficulty in digesting this paper. Some knowledge on probabilistic dependency graph (PDG) is required to understand this paper, but examples are limited to capture what functional independences are captured from this PDG. Also, a natural question is then the difference between the DAG and the PDG. Such differences need to be highlighted to motivate this work and provide a clear distinction on the notion of PDG. __Lack of motivations__ I think a real-world example of functional independences that are not captured by the conditional independence terminology is required. Even if there are some examples (such as a non-random coin in line 134) exist to capture the distinction between the causal graph and the PDG, this example is somewhat made-up and can be addressed in the existing framework, since in causal graph, such two non-random coins are considered as one variable. I believe this proposed work is providing a new _paradigm_ compared to existing causal graphical model to capture more general functional dependencies. Then, there should be more examples that readers would feel the incapability of causal graphs. __Weak literature review__ I wanted to read the history of development of the notion of QIM in the paper but couldn't find. What is the limitation of previous papers, and what are the distinction of this paper compared to them?

Questions

1. My understanding of QIM compatibility from Definition 2 is that the hypergraph $\mathcal{A}$ is QIM-compatible if $\mathcal{A}$ satisfies the causal Markov condition with respect to the distribution. Then, there must be a graph capturing this independence information, by a graphoid theory. Then, how the notion of QIM compatibility can be differentiated with the existing graphoid theory? 2. A semi-Markovian causal graph (an acyclic directed mixed graph, ADMG) is known to carry a set of conditional independences and a set of _functional independence_. For example, consider a graph G = {W -> R -> X -> Y, W<-> X, W<-> Y} (which is known to be a _Napkin graph_ (Book of Why, Pearl)). In this graph, no conditional independences exist. However, it's known that the functional $Q[Y]:= \frac{\sum_{w}P(y,x \mid r,w)P(w)}{\sum_{w}P(x \mid r,w)P(w) }$ (which is an identification estimand of $P(y | do(x))$) is known to be independent of the choice of $r$. This type of functional independence is called the _Verma's constrains_. This type of constraints doesn't show up explicitly in the ADMG. Then, do you think this type of constraints (more generally, a set of conditional independence and Verma's constraints) can be shown simultaneously in the directed hypergraph?

Rating

7

Confidence

2

Soundness

3

Presentation

2

Contribution

3

Limitations

1. I think this paper only considered the case where the unmeasured noises are independent. I think this is a strong assumption.

Authorsrebuttal2024-08-08

(missing line break and mis-scoped quotation)

We just noticed a formatting error in our response, and would like to head off any confusion; our response to the third question begins inside the quoted material, due to a missing line break. Explicitly, our response to your third question should instead begin as follows: --- We are not sure that we understood your final question, but we will try to answer it to the best of our ability. > For Example 3 with Boolean variables, the bidirectional arrow (X <-> Y) has 4 parameters, but there are only 3 degrees of freedom. Almost all parameterizations are inconsistent. For an inconsistent parameterization, does it define a distribution? If so, which one? By the “bidirectional arrow X <-> Y”, we assume you mean the pair of two arrows, X->Y and Y->X. We have not talked in this paper about how to parameterize arrows (we are focused on the qualitative aspects of the graph, not the probabilistic parameterization). However, the work on probabilistic dependency graphs (PDGs) that we reference does. In that setting ... --- Apologies for the oversight!

Reviewer b6Hm2024-08-09

Thanks for the response

Thank you for the detailed response to my questions. Almost all my concerns are addressed in your rebuttal. Sincerely appreciatre your time in responding. I would suggest that you please include the complexity discussion that you have presented here and real examples in the next iteration of the paper. These will only enhance the paper.

Reviewer 91DJ2024-08-10

Response

Thank you for carefully addressing my questions and concerns. I believe QIM has the potential to provide additional independence information that cannot be captured by a graph. Based on this, I will raise my score.

Program Chairsdecision2024-09-25

Decision

Accept (poster)

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