Safety Not Guaranteed: International Strategic Dynamics of Risky Technology Races

The great powers appear to be entering an era of heightened competition to master security-relevant technologies in areas such as AI. This is concerning because deploying new technologies can create substantial shared risks, such as inadvertent crisis escalation or uncontrolled proliferation. We analyze a strategic model to determine when states deploy technologies before learning how to minimize their risks. When competitors are moderately adversarial or the technology laggard is not very capable, the laggard does not use a risky technology unless it catches up to the technology leader.

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