Cloud-to-Ground and Intra-Cloud Nowcasting Lightning Using a Semantic Segmentation Deep Learning Network

Abstract

Weather forecasting requires a comprehensive analysis of various types of meteorology data, and with the wide application of deep learning in various fields, deep learning has proved to have powerful feature extraction capabilities. In this paper, from the viewpoint of an image semantic segmentation problem, a deep learning framework based on semantic segmentation is proposed to nowcast Cloud-to-Ground and Intra-Cloud lightning simultaneously within an hour. First, a dataset with spatiotemporal features is constructed using radar echo reflectivity data and lightning observation data. More specifically, each sample in the dataset consists of the past half hour of observations. Then, a Light3DUnet is presented based on 3D U-Net. The three-dimensional structured network can extract spatiotemporal features, and the encoder–decoder structure and the skip connection can handle small targets and recover more details. Due to the sparsity of lightning observations, a weighted cross-loss function was used to evaluate network performance. Finally, Light3DUnet was trained using the dataset to predict Cloud-to-Ground and Intra-Cloud lightning in the next hour. We evaluated the prediction performance of the network using a real-world dataset from middle China. The results show that Light3DUnet has a good ability to nowcast IC and CG lightning. Meanwhile, due to the spatial position coupling of IC and CG on a two-dimensional plane, predictions from summing the probabilistic prediction matrices will be augmented to obtain accurate prediction results for total flashes.