Human Mobility Prediction Challenge: Next Location Prediction using Spatiotemporal BERT

Abstract

Understanding, modeling, and predicting human mobility patterns in urban areas has become a crucial task from the perspectives of traffic modeling, disaster risk management, urban planning, and more. HuMob Challenge 2023 aims to predict future movement trajectories based on the past movement trajectories of 100,000 users[1]. Our team, "uclab2023", considered that model design significantly impacts training and prediction times in the task of human mobility trajectory prediction. To address this, we proposed a model based on BERT, commonly used in natural language processing, which allows parallel predictions, thus reducing both training and prediction times. In this challenge, Task 1 involves predicting the 15-day daily mobility trajectories of target users using the movement trajectories of 100,000 users. Task 2 focuses on predicting the 15-day emergency mobility trajectories of target users with data from 25,000 users. Our team achieved accuracy scores of GEOBLEU: 0.3440 and DTW: 29.9633 for Task 1 and GEOBLEU: 0.2239 and DTW: 44.7742 for Task 2[2][3].