001 Debiased Machine Learning: Identification, Estimation, and Shape Constraints arXiv Paper Qihui Chen, Ka Yan Cheng et al. 5 days ago 002 Spectral Truncation in Synthetic Control arXiv Paper Mojtaba Eslami 5 days ago 003 Bitcoin Price Direction Prediction via Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Fusion of Social Sentiment and Technical Features arXiv Paper Muhammad Abdullah Haroon 7 days ago 004 Attenuated Heterogeneity in Fixed-Effects Causal Forests, and a Cross-Fitted Correction arXiv Paper Harry Aytug Jul 24 005 CausalForge: A Formally Grounded, Self-Improving Agentic Framework for Automated Research in Causal Inference arXiv Paper Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis Syrgkanis Jul 24 006 Interventional Score Geometry for Causal Inference arXiv Paper Edward Y. Chang Jul 24 007 A Fixed-Effects Causal Forest for Staggered Adoption, with an Application to Medicaid Expansion arXiv Paper Harry Aytug Jul 22 008 Optimizing Regret arXiv Paper Irene Aldridge Jul 21 009 Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference arXiv Paper Masahiro Kato, Takahide Kato Jul 20 010 Econometrics with Pre-Trained Embeddings for Unstructured Data arXiv Paper Yuya Shimizu Jul 19 011 Tabular Foundation Models for Discrete Choice Estimation arXiv Paper Liu Liu, Danlu Zhang Jul 14 012 Partial Identification with Multiple Nonlinear Measurements of a Latent Regressor arXiv Paper Burhan Ogut, Michelle Yin Jul 13 013 Removable Defects: The Economics and Limits of Deliberate Deficiency arXiv Paper Cheng Qian Jul 13 014 Deep Learning for Dynamic Programming with Recursive Utility Using First-order Conditions arXiv Paper X. Peng, Wu Guo et al. Jul 10 015 Sensitivity to Subjective Expected Utility Maximization: A Methodological Study, with an Illustrative Application to LLM Decision-Making arXiv Paper Jeffrey Helzner Jul 8 016 Factor-Augmented Machine Learning Panel Regressions arXiv Paper Andrii Babii, Luca Barbaglia et al. Jul 7 017 Stabilized Higher-Order Influence Functions: Statistical Theory of a Class of Bilinear Forms arXiv Paper Na Liu et al. Jul 6 018 Deep Learning for Dynamic Programming with Recursive Utility arXiv Paper X. Peng, Wu Guo Jul 5 019 Understanding Guest Preferences and Optimizing Two-sided Marketplaces: Airbnb as an Example arXiv Paper Yufei Wu, Daniel Schmierer Jul 1 020 Estimating Supply Incrementality in Two-sided Marketplaces: A Causal Machine Learning Approach arXiv Paper Yufei Wu, Daniel Schmierer et al. Jun 30 021 HERO: Improving the Reliability and Sensitivity of Generative Model Evaluation Using Historical Data arXiv Paper Xinrui Ruan, Zhenyu Zhao et al. Jun 29 022 Liquidity-Based Audit of Algorithmic Trading Strategies arXiv Paper Irene E. Aldridge Jun 27 023 MACROCAST: A Vintage-Consistent Time Series Foundation Model for Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting arXiv Paper Andrea Carriero, Davide Pettenuzzo et al. Jun 27 024 Embedding Foundation Model Predictions in Discrete-Choice Models with Structural Guarantees arXiv Paper Yingshuo Wang, Xianshui Sun et al. Jun 24 025 When Surveys Become Conversations: Adaptive Matrix Validation for AI-Assisted Interviews arXiv Paper Tyler H. McCormick Jun 23 026 Variance or Standard Deviation? Shell Geometry and Global-Scale Priors in High-Dimensional Shrinkage arXiv Paper Wayne Yuan Gao et al. Jun 22 027 On the Asymptotic Inadmissibility of Double Machine Learning Estimators Under Structure-Agnostic Models arXiv Paper Lin Liu, R. Mukherjee et al. Jun 21 028 Distributional Granger Causality: Identification, Sequential Inference, and Adaptive Testing arXiv Paper Ayush Jha Jun 20 029 Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes arXiv Paper Yiyan Huang, Cheuk Hang Leung et al. Jun 17 030 Bayesian Poisson-Randomized Gamma Tensor Factorization with Application to International Trade Flows arXiv Paper Jie Jian et al. Jun 15 031 Generative Predictive Distributions for Time Series arXiv Paper Jordi Llorens-Terrazas et al. Jun 15 032 Statistical Foundations of LLM-based A/B Testing: A Surrogacy Framework for Human Causal Inference arXiv Paper Joel Persson, Maarten Schultzberg et al. Jun 15 033 Identification and Inference for Algorithmic Frontiers with Selective Labels arXiv Paper Yiqi Liu, Francesca Molinari et al. Jun 12 034 Prediction-Powered Causal Inference by Automatic Debiased Machine Learning and Semi-Supervised Riesz Regression arXiv Paper Masahiro Kato Jun 11 035 Agentomics: Economic Foundations for the Valuation, Attribution, and Pricing of AI Agents in Human-AI Workflows arXiv Paper Quanyan Zhu Jun 9 036 CP-factorization for high dimensional tensor time series and double projection iterations arXiv Paper Jinyuan Chang et al. Jun 7 037 Evaluating AI Investment Strategies arXiv Paper Irene Aldridge Jun 7 038 Online Pandora's Box for Contextual LLM Cascading arXiv Paper A. Belloni, Yan Chen et al. Jun 5 039 TOPSIS-RAD: Ranking According to Desires arXiv Paper Leonardo Fernandes Costa, H. Costa et al. Jun 5 040 Finding Most Influential Sets arXiv Paper L. Konrad, Nikolas Kuschnig Jun 4 041 When the Scaffold Stays On: AI, Practice Style, and Screening in Elite Skill Formation arXiv Paper S. Yao Jun 4 042 Failure Modes of Deep Multi-Agent RL in Asynchronous Pricing: Reproducible Triggers, Trace Diagnostics, and a Partial Fix arXiv Paper S. Murthy, R. Pandey Jun 3 043 Insurance of Agentic AI arXiv Paper Quanyan Zhu Jun 3 044 ReSGA: A Large Tail Risk Model for Learning Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall arXiv Paper Yichi Zhang, K. Zhu et al. Jun 3 045 Data-Automated Policy Learning for Nonlinear Welfare arXiv Paper Chunrong Ai et al. Jun 1 046 Recovering Direct Price Effects of Environmental Amenities in Housing Markets: Regression and Causal Machine Learning Model Assessment with Empirical Monte Carlo Simulation arXiv Paper Zhenshan Chen et al. Jun 1 047 Certificates without Electrons? Theory and Evidence on Impacts from AI-Driven Power Demand arXiv Paper Dana Golden, Aruna Balasubramanian et al. May 30 048 Position: Prioritize Identifying Structure, Not Complex Models, for Scientific Discovery arXiv Paper Tyler H. McCormick May 30 049 A Lecture Note on Offline RL and IRL, Part II: Foundations of Inverse Reinforcement Learning and Dynamic Discrete Choice Models arXiv Paper E. H. Kang May 29 050 Comparing Market Mechanism Efficiencies arXiv Paper Irene Aldridge May 29 051 Modeling Covariate Transition for Efficient Estimation of Longitudinal Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments arXiv Paper Naoki Chihara, Tatsushi Oka et al. May 29 052 Moment-Based Inference for Regression with Latent Dirichlet Covariates arXiv Paper Ziyu Jiang May 29 053 Auditing and Fixing Economic Validity in Tabular Foundation Models for Discrete Choice arXiv Paper Yingshuo Wang, Xiang Sun et al. May 26 054 Learning Nonlinear Factor Models with Unknown Monotone Links from Incomplete and Noisy Data arXiv Paper Yutong Chao, Resat Gokhan et al. May 25 055 Multi-Dimensional Matching in Market Design arXiv Paper Irene Aldridge May 19 056 Parameterized 4-Qubit EWL Quantum Game Circuits with Dirac-Solow-Swan Hamiltonian Integration for Quadruple Helix Disruptive Innovation Recommender Systems arXiv Paper Agung Trisetyarso, Fithra Faisal Hastiadi et al. May 18 057 SAGA: A Sequence-Adaptive Generative Architecture for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Adaptive Temporal Conformal Prediction arXiv Paper Gustav Olaf Yunus Laitinen-Fredriksson Lundstrom-Imanov, Hafize Gonca Comert May 18 058 Policy Learning with Observational Data: The Case of Hepatitis C Treatment for HIV/HCV Co-Infected Patients arXiv Paper Raphaël Langevin May 15 059 Algometrics: Forecasting Under Algorithmic Feedback arXiv Paper Marc Schmitt May 13 060 Regret Equals Covariance: A Closed-Form Characterization for Stochastic Optimization arXiv Paper Irene Aldridge May 13