MODELING ACTIONS, CONSEQUENCES AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER DIGITAL TRACES

Systems, methods, and computer storage media are provided for analyzing a large amount of social media data from a large population of social media users and constructing correlational data models between one or more events that occur within each user's timeline. Social media posts directed to personal experiences of a large number of social media users are extracted. Event timelines are generated for each of the social media users, based on their personal experiences. The event timelines are analyzed with a particular event of interest to measure correlations between events occurring within the timelines and the particular event of interest. Using the measured correlations, a correlational data model is thereby constructed. The correlational data model may be used for application to decision-making calculations by one or more systems in an active or passive manner.