Predicting Advertisement Impact for Audience Selection

An influence system for predicting advertisement impact for audience selection. An advertising probe campaign is operated by sending an advertisement to each entity in a treatment group of entities. A control group of entities which excludes the treatment group entities is selected and no campaign advertising content is sent to the treatment group entities. An influence model is created by comparing features of the treatment group converters to features of the control group converters. An individual frequency cap is selected for each entity that is a candidate for the advertising campaign based on a result of applying the influence model to the features of the candidate entity. The entity may be selected to receive an advertisement based on the individual frequency cap. Some embodiments are integrated with a real time bidding (RTB) exchange and a bid response may be configured based on the results of applying the influence model.