APPARATUS AND METHOD FOR STAGED GRAPH PROCESSING TO PRODUCE A RISK INFERENCE MEASURE

A computer implemented method includes processing a deterministic factual graph to produce superfacts. The deterministic factual graph has deterministic factual graph leaf nodes individually resolving facts to discrete-valued outcomes and parent nodes of the deterministic factual graph leaf nodes resolving the discrete-valued outcomes to superfacts. Each superfact is a qualitative characterization summarizing discrete-valued outcomes. A stochastic factual graph is processed to produce a risk inference measure. The stochastic factual graph has stochastic factual graph leaf nodes incorporating the facts or superfacts. The stochastic factual graph is a Bayesian network where each stochastic factual graph node, except for a base node, is associated with a probability function, and edges between stochastic factual graph nodes represent conditional dependencies. The risk inference measure is compared to an escalation threshold. An incident is evaluated when the risk inference measure exceeds the escalation threshold.