SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR FORECASTING HIGH-SELLERS USING MULTIVARIATE BAYESIAN TIME SERIES

A system and method for grouping units for forecasting purposes is presented. A sales forecast for a set of stock keeping units (SKUs) is desired. The SKUs are separated into clusters based on the similarity of the SKUs. Then a set of Bayesian multivariate dynamic linear models is chosen to be used to calculate a sales forecast for each of the clusters of SKUs. The accuracy of each dynamic linear model is determined in a training procedure and a set of weights for each dynamic linear model is calculated. Thereafter, the weights can be used with the dynamic linear models to create a weighted average forecast model. The training procedure can be run periodically to maintain the accuracy of the weights. Each procedure can operate on a sliding window of data. Other embodiments are also disclosed herein.