GRID CONTROL APPARATUS AND METHOD FOR PREDICTING A TIME WHEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON THE GRID WILL EXCEED NORMAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY

A method for predicting when consumption on a grid will exceed production capacity for buildings within the grid including time shifted version for each of the buildings, each version comprising consumption values along with time and temperature values, where the consumption values within each set are shifted by one of a plurality of lag values relative to the time and temperature values; performing a regression analysis on each set to yield corresponding regression model parameters and a corresponding residual; determining a least valued residual indicating a corresponding energy lag for each of the buildings; using temperatures, regression model parameters, and energy lags for all of the buildings to estimate a cumulative consumption, and to predict the time when consumption on the grid will exceed production capacity; and receiving the time, and preparing and commencing exceptional measures required to manage the consumption.