RISK EVALUATION

For risk evaluation, a method encodes event data as a linear array that includes a plurality of logic states. The method estimates a success probability for each logic state and identifies path groups of the plurality of logic states. The logic states of each path group must all be healthy for each logic state to contribute to system success. The method further identifies each path combination of path groups and path nodes that result in system success. In addition, the method calculates a system success probability as a sum of success probabilities for each path combination. The success rate for each path combination is calculated as a product of the path group success probabilities for the path combination.