METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR FORECASTING WITH MODEL-BASED PDF ESTIMATES

Disclosed herein are systems and methods for forecasting with model-based PDF (probability density function) estimates. Some method embodiments may comprise: estimating model parameters for a time series, calculating a PDF for the time series, and generating a forecast from the PDF. The model parameters may comprise a variance for a hidden noise source, and the PDF for the time series may be based at least in part on an estimated variance for the hidden noise source.