ESTIMATING HEALTHCARE OUTCOMES FOR INDIVIDUALS

A method and apparatus for predicting a health benefit for an individual is provided. Outcomes from a first simulation on a set of simulated individuals reflecting a population are stored and used to determine a first risk function and corresponding cost values. Outcomes from a second simulation on a set of simulated individuals reflecting having a healthcare intervention are stored and used to determine a second risk function reflecting the intervention and corresponding cost values of the intervention. A benefit function is derived from the difference of the first and second risk functions. A cost function that describes the cost of the intervention is derived from the respective cost values. The derived benefit function and cost function are used to predict the corresponding benefit and cost of the healthcare intervention for a given individual. Individuals can be ranked by degree of expected benefit.