HIGH-PRECISION CUSTOMER-BASED TARGETING BY INDIVIDUAL USAGE STATISTICS

A system for distributing limited numbers of promotional offers to individual customers, the promotional offers being targeted to customers based on the customers' individual probabilities of accepting the offers in such a way that each customer can receive a limited number of offers that are estimated to be most likely to be acceptable by the customer. Customer-Based targeting analyzes each customer's past purchasing behavior relative to a master list of promotional offers made available to all customers. From that master list Customer-Based targeting selects a preset limit of promotional offers for each individual customer according to the likelihood that, given the opportunity to select any offers of the master list, each customer would prefer those few offers selected specifically for the customer. Various techniques are disclosed for providing an offer acceptance probability profile tailored for individual customers for use in the Customer-Based targeting technique. Product groupings and market segments are taken into account. Empirical Bayes techniques are applied to the estimation of the offer acceptance profile, and techniques suitable for handling sparse data are applied. Various marketing strategies are incorporated into the system. A graphical technique is provided for adjusting the offer acceptance profile that enables a user to override a system computation and manually set the relative offer acceptance probabilities for an individual user or class of users.