System of Sequential Kernel Regression Modeling for Forecasting Financial Data

A monitoring system for determining the future behavior of a financial system includes an empirical model to receive reference data that indicates the normal behavior of the system and input pattern arrays. Each input pattern array has a plurality of input vectors, while each input vector represents a time point and has input values representing a plurality of parameters indicating the current condition of the system. The model generates estimate values based on a calculation that uses an input pattern array and the reference data to determine a similarity measure between the input values and reference data. The estimate values, in the form of an estimate matrix, include at least one estimate vector of inferred estimate values, and represents at least one time point that is not represented by the input vectors. The inferred estimate values are used to determine a future behavior of the financial system.