Adaptive Principal Component Regression with Applications to Panel Data

Principal component regression (PCR) is a popular technique for fixed-design error-in-variables regression, a generalization of the linear regression setting in which the observed covariates are corrupted with random noise. We provide the first time-uniform finite sample guarantees for (regularized) PCR whenever data is collected adaptively. Since the proof techniques for analyzing PCR in the fixed design setting do not readily extend to the online setting, our results rely on adapting tools from modern martingale concentration to the error-in-variables setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of our bounds by applying them to the domain of panel data, a ubiquitous setting in econometrics and statistics. As our first application, we provide a framework for experiment design in panel data settings when interventions are assigned adaptively. Our framework may be thought of as a generalization of the synthetic control and synthetic interventions frameworks, where data is collected via an adaptive intervention assignment policy. Our second application is a procedure for learning such an intervention assignment policy in a setting where units arrive sequentially to be treated. In addition to providing theoretical performance guarantees (as measured by regret), we show that our method empirically outperforms a baseline which does not leverage error-in-variables regression.

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Peer review

Reviewer 1mVx6/10 · confidence 2/52023-06-30

Summary

Principal components regression (PCR) is common technique for handling data with error-in-variables. Prior studies had established bounds for PCR in traditional settings, but those bounds were not relevant for settings where data is collected adaptively. This paper provides computable bounds for the L2 error for coefficients in PCR specific to the adaptive data setting.

Strengths

- The results of the paper are both new and technically sound. - The bounds are computable under fairly reasonable assumptions. - While I am not very familiar with martingale concentration, this paper provides further evidence that it is a reasonable approach for online learning problems.

Weaknesses

- The paper satisfactorily describes how the new bounds compare to similar results for PCR in non-adaptive settings. However, there is limited discussion about why PCR might be a preferred methodology for online learning problems, beyond previous results in a generic error-in-variables setting. - I commend the authors for including a section for an application of their work in an otherwise heavily theoretical paper. However, after some setup, the ultimate result appears to simply be a restatement of Theorem 4.1 / Corollary 4.3 but with some terms being a bit more concrete. The ultimate applicability of the result is not obvious.

Questions

Presumably there are no other established results for models with error-in-variables and adaptive data. While the results are interesting, is there any point of comparison for other methodologies in this relatively narrowly defined area?

Rating

6: Weak Accept: Technically solid, moderate-to-high impact paper, with no major concerns with respect to evaluation, resources, reproducibility, ethical considerations.

Confidence

2: You are willing to defend your assessment, but it is quite likely that you did not understand the central parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work. Math/other details were not carefully checked.

Soundness

4 excellent

Presentation

2 fair

Contribution

2 fair

Limitations

Limitations have been adequately addressed

Reviewer jhsg6/10 · confidence 4/52023-07-06

Summary

This work studies the properties of principle component regression in the adaptive setting, where future observations may depend on the values of previously observed observations. The authors provide a time-uniform bounds on the L_2 error of online principal component regression that extend prior work to the adaptive setting. In the process they also remove a previously required assumption of soft sparsity, replacing it with a dependence on the signal to noise ratio. Finally, the authors describe how the results on PCR may be applied to the panel data setting which is commonly modeled via latent factor models.

Strengths

* This is an interesting task setting. Adaptivity is common in practical settings, and this paper does a good job of providing a nice theoretical grounding for PCR in this setting. * The authors do a nice job of providing clear, interpretable theoretical results. Decent motivation is also provided. * The application to causal inference is a nice motivation (though it would have been nice to see an extended discussion)

Weaknesses

Overall, while this is a nice set of results it would have been nice to see (a) a much more extended application of the theory to causal inference (or another relevant use case), and (b) the presence of _some_ amount of empirical evidence for the results. The authors also argue strongly that an advantage of the proposed approach is removing the soft sparsity assumption and replacing it with the SNR assumption. However, it's not clear to me in the adaptive case when we would expect for this to be advantageous. Shouldn't we expect some actions to be significantly favored during, e.g., a contextual bandit procedure that is pointed toward in the conclusion? It's also not entirely clear to me how useful the bounds provided in Theorem 4.4 are going to be outside of a theoretical setting. It would have been nice to have seen some empirical results to demonstrate their relative utility in lieu of the in-line proofs.

Questions

It’s a little confusing why we would have separate noise assumptions over the treated and control series (assumptions 3.1 and 3.2, respectively). I recognize that 3.1 contains 3.2 but the assumption is considerably stronger. It’s not clear to me when we would be able to assume both the low rank assumption and bounded noise in practical settings. The regularization justification seems a little strange. Aren’t we already imposing a regularization by restricting to the top $k$ principle components? It’s not entirely clear to me why imposing additional regularization is necessary in this setting. Theorem 4.4 seems like it could be quite loose in empirical settings. Do the authors have empirical results that examine this? Smaller items: In Theorem 4.4 $L$ appears to be undefined in the main text. It’s unclear within the main text whether the authors are employing assumption 3.1 or 3.2. Given that the latter is stronger, this should be stated either within the theorem text or directly before/after.

Rating

6: Weak Accept: Technically solid, moderate-to-high impact paper, with no major concerns with respect to evaluation, resources, reproducibility, ethical considerations.

Confidence

4: You are confident in your assessment, but not absolutely certain. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work.

Soundness

4 excellent

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

3 good

Limitations

Yes.

Reviewer Dfi84/10 · confidence 4/52023-07-08

Summary

This paper studies theoretical properties of the principal component regression (PCR) when data are collected adaptively and are corrupted with measurement errors. In particular, it gives an upper bound of the estimation error of the regression coefficients of the PCR. The derived bounds are then used to study the estimation error of causal effects in panel data setting.

Strengths

The paper is well written and the problem under study if of interest. The theoretical findings appear to be interesting.

Weaknesses

1. There are some issues with the theoretical findings which I elaborate later. 2. There is no numerical evaluations to support the theoretical findings. 3. There is no real data application so that one can evaluate the practical usefulness of the derived bounds.

Questions

1. Regarding the theoretical results. (a) The model is assumed to be $Y_n=<\theta(a_n),X_n>+\xi_n$ where $X_n\in W^*$ with $dim(W=r<d)$. The parameter vector $\theta(a)$ is a d-dimensional vector that also resides in $W^*$. This setting is sort of strange because I am not even sure $\theta(a)$ is identifiable in such a setting. Please clarify. (b) Related to the above question, in definition 3.4, the matrix $\hat\nu_n(a)$ should be of at most rank $k<d$ by definition. Is it even invertible? (c) In Corollary 4.3, the convergence rate becomes faster when $d$ increases. This is a little counterintuitive. When d-increases, there are more parameters to be estimated and one would expect a slower convergence rate. Can you explain the intuition behind this finding? (d) Corollary 4.3, in a special case, when $d=r$, no dimension reduction is needed and the model under study becomes a regular linear regression model. Then the convergence rate is $O(1)$. This is true in linear regression models with measurement errors since the bias in regression coefficient estimates does not vanish, see, e.g., Carroll et al. (1995). Does this mean the derived bound only applies for the case $d\to\infty$? 2. Regarding adaptivity. The authors emphasize that the data are collected adaptively, and hence can be correlated. However, the correlation issue is not adequately addressed in the theoretical proof. (a) On page 4, lines 159-160, the authors introduce the notation $\mathbf P$ as the projection of $\mathbf Z_n$ onto the true subspace $W_*$. However, since rows of $\mathbf Z_n$ are adaptively collected with a stochastic action sequence $A_n=\{a_1,\cdots, a_n\}$. Therefore, $\mathbf Z_n$ is dependent on $A_n$ and so should the $\mathbf P_{n,k}$. Therefore, $\mathbf P_{n,}$ should be written as $\mathbf P_{n,k} (A_n)$. And the authors claim that $P_{n,k} (A_n)\to P$. If $A_n$ is stochastic, what is the sample version $\hat{\mathbf P}_{n,k}$ converges to as $n\to\infty$? What is the exact definition of $P$? (b) On page 5, line 184, the authors comment that "bounding $||\varepsilon_n(a)||_{op}$ is a nontrivial task as the rows of $\varepsilon_n(a)$ may be strongly correlated". However, the matrix $\varepsilon_n$ is a just stacked version of rows in $\varepsilon_n(a)$'s. In a special case where the first half of the rows all take action $a_1$ and the second half of rows all take action $a_2$. If rows in $\varepsilon_n(a_1)$ and $\varepsilon_n(a_2)$ are highly correlated, I don't see why rows in $\varepsilon_n$ are not highly correlated. I think the paper implicitly assumes that the measurement errors are independent of the actions taken. However, if this is the case, rows in $\varepsilon_n(a)$ would also be independent as well and the adaptivity wouldn't matter. Please clarify. (c) Similar to the above question, in the proofs of Lemma A.2-A.4 and B.3, the measurement errors are assumed to be independent of each other. However, the paper emphasizes that the data are collected adaptively. This pretty much means that the measurement errors $\epsilon_i$'s are independent of actions taken. Again, the adaptivity wouldn't matter in this case. 3. There is no numerical evaluations to support the theoretical findings. 4. There is no real data application so that one can evaluate the practical usefulness of the derived bounds. Reference: 1. Carroll, R. J., Ruppert, D., & Stefanski, L. A. (1995). Measurement error in nonlinear models (Vol. 105). CRC press.

Rating

4: Borderline reject: Technically solid paper where reasons to reject, e.g., limited evaluation, outweigh reasons to accept, e.g., good evaluation. Please use sparingly.

Confidence

4: You are confident in your assessment, but not absolutely certain. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work.

Soundness

2 fair

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

3 good

Limitations

NA

Reviewer M8r16/10 · confidence 3/52023-07-10

Summary

This study provides finite sample guarantees for PCR regression in the online setting where covariates and interventions are chosen adaptively. The key technical contributions hinge on applying recent results on self-normalized martingale concentration to this problem. The authors further apply these novel bounds in the context of learning from panel data when interventions are assigned adaptively.

Strengths

The paper is overall well written, with a good mix of intuition and technical detail. The theoretical findings around the self normalized martingale concentration application are insightful. The application to adaptive panel data setting illustrates the usefulness of this method well. Furthermore, this method enables some future work around noisy LinUCB bounds which I look forward to. In general, I found this paper to be engaging and believe that with a few additional adjustments, it has the potential to make a valuable contribution to the conference.

Weaknesses

The problem addressed in this paper appears to be quite specific, and it is unclear how frequently online learning with noisy covariates occurs in practical scenarios. It would be beneficial to include concrete examples that illustrate situations where this problem could arise. Additionally, one notable concern is the absence of an experimental section in this work. While the paper primarily focuses on theoretical aspects, it would be valuable to have an experimental evaluation of the proposed bounds to further validate their effectiveness.

Questions

* How common is the problem of learning with noisy covariates, especially in an online setting? * While I don't see an explicit assumption, do the error terms have to be homoscedastic for the analysis to work? * How strong are the assumptions 3.1-3.3 and how do they compare with those in similar literature? * Could you provide some experimental evaluation?

Rating

6: Weak Accept: Technically solid, moderate-to-high impact paper, with no major concerns with respect to evaluation, resources, reproducibility, ethical considerations.

Confidence

3: You are fairly confident in your assessment. It is possible that you did not understand some parts of the submission or that you are unfamiliar with some pieces of related work. Math/other details were not carefully checked.

Soundness

4 excellent

Presentation

3 good

Contribution

3 good

Limitations

The authors don't explicitly addressed the limitations of their work.

Reviewer 1mVx2023-08-16

Thank you for your response. The additional context is appreciated, especially related to alternative methodologies, or lack thereof. Also, while I appreciate the results in Appendix F, I'm not sure that it alleviates my concern about the role of the application section in the overall paper. I have carefully evaluated your response, as well as the feedback provided by other reviewers. After due consideration, I have decided to retain my initial rating.

Reviewer jhsg2023-08-21

I would like to thank the authors for taking the time to respond in such a thoughtful way. My concerns have largely been addressed, and I am raising my score to reflect this, with my remaining concerns still largely centered on framing/applicability.

Reviewer Dfi82023-08-21

I would like to thank authors for detailed responses to my questions. But I am not convinced by the arguments, hence will keep my score as it is.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-21

We are happy to further clarify any questions the reviewer has, as it is not clear which specific concerns the reviewer still has. We believe the majority of our rebuttal was clarifying linear algebraic facts (such as properties of projection matrices), common assumptions made in the matrix completion/synthetic controls literature, and the role of adaptivity in our arguments. We are thus unsure what the reviewer finds unconvincing.

Reviewer Dfi82023-08-21

For question 1(c), fixing the rank r still looks strange. Instead of adding columns that are linear combinations of r latent factors, it is more likely in practice to add irrelevant noisy columns, in which case the rank of X will increases as d increases. Fixing r seems unnatural to me. For questions 2(c), you still need to assume the assumption that the measurement errors are independent of the actions taken, correct? Since in the paper you did not use the martingale conditions.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-21

*1. For question 1(c), fixing the rank r still looks strange. Instead of adding columns that are linear combinations of r latent factors, it is more likely in practice to add irrelevant noisy columns, in which case the rank of X will increases as d increases. Fixing r seems unnatural to me.* Even as more covariates are observed over time (that is, as new rows are added), the $r$-dimensional subspace spanned by the $d$-dimensional covariates remains fixed over time. In other words, the rowspan of $X_n$ (the matrix of covariates *without* measurement errors) is a fixed, $r$-dimensional subspace of $R^d$ for all time steps $n \geq n_0$. This sort of setting follows directly from the latent factor model. We emphasize that this latent factor model has been widely accepted as the go-to model in many econometric papers. In particular, those on panel data, principal component regression, and synthetic interventions/controls [1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8]. Given that the importance these works have had in addressing practical, real-world econometric problems, we believe that the model studied is, in fact, of great practical relevance and reasonable to assume. If the reviewer is uncomfortable with assuming $r$ is known, we note there exist practically relevant heuristics for estimating $r$ (see [7], for instance). *2. For questions 2(c), you still need to assume the assumption that the measurement errors are independent of the actions taken, correct? Since in the paper you did not use the martingale conditions.* We emphasize that the errors/noise in covariates (that is the rows of the noisy covariate matrix $Z_n$) do NOT need to be independent of action taken, but that the error in the response (i.e. reward) is assumed to be independent of the action taken. Moreover, we believe the reviewer is mistaken, as in the paper we heavily leverage martingale analysis heavily to prove our results (see Appendix A for a detailed description of the results we use). In particular, we leverage the self-normalized concentration results of [5] and [6] throughout our work. These results directly apply to the more general (but more notationally cumbersome) noise structure defined in our first response (that of being conditionally sub-Gaussian conditioned on the natural filtration associated with observations up to time $n$). [1] Manuel Arellano and Bo Honore. Panel data models: Some recent developments. Handbook of Econometrics, 02 2000. [2] Anish Agarwal, Devavrat Shah, Dennis Shen, and Dogyoon Song. On robustness of principal component regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116(536):1731–1745, 2021. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2021.1928513 [3] Kung-Yee Liang and Scott L. Zeger. Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models. Biometrika, 73(1):13–22, 04 1986. ISSN 0006-3444. doi: 10.1093/biomet/73.1.13. URL https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/73.1.13. [4] Manuel Arellano and Bo Honore. Panel data models: Some recent developments. Handbook of Econometrics, 02 2000. [5] Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori, Dávid Pál, and Csaba Szepesvári. Improved algorithms for linear stochastic bandits. Advances in neural information processing systems, 24, 2011. [6] Steven R Howard, Aaditya Ramdas, Jon McAuliffe, and Jasjeet Sekhon. Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences. 2021. [7] Anish Agarwal, Devavrat Shah, and Dennis Shen. Synthetic interventions. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.07691, 2020. [8] Alberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond, and Jens Hainmueller. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American statistical Association, 105(490):493–505, 2010.

Reviewer Dfi82023-08-22

For 1(c), I was talking about adding more columns, not rows. For 2(c), I meant that "the errors in the response" is assumed to be independent of the actions, which is a strong assumption. With such an assumption. The adaptivity achieved under such an assumption is rather limited.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-22

Thank you for your quick response. To clarify, for any given problem instance, the only parameter that grows is the number of data points (i.e., rows) that arrive, and the number of columns is fixed. This is why we based our previous response on “growing rows.” However, one can compare different families of problem instances with different dimensions. Our initial answer to question 1(c) already describes what happens if $d$ were to increase while $r$ remains fixed. Also, we believe that the reviewer’s comment about how rank can increase with added “noisy columns” cannot occur in our setting, since there is no noise in the (unobserved) latent covariate matrix $X$, which has a fixed rank. Finally, we remark that Corollary 4.3 is just one particular setting under which our bounds take a “nice” form. For a more general result which makes relatively few assumptions on the relationship between $r$, $n$, and $d$, see Theorem 4.1 or Theorem 4.4. Regarding 2(c), the difficulty in our setting comes from handling correlations between the noise in the covariates and the actions, which was not handed in previous work on principal component regression or synthetic control/intervention. Moreover, we do not believe that the errors in the response being independent of the actions is a strong assumption. Indeed, it is usually assumed in, e.g., linear bandit settings that the noise is conditionally subgaussian, and our results may be readily extended to handle conditionally subgaussian noise. (See our original answer to 2(c) for more details.) Finally, previous work on PCR and synthetic control/interventions also assumes that actions are independent from response error.

Reviewer Dfi82023-08-22

For 1c, adding "noisy columns" means adding a column that is not in the linear column space of the columns of X, which is a very realistic setting when one has a high dimensional regression problem. The estimation error typically increases as $d$ increases. Assuming a fix rank for X while d increases is not very realistic in practice. What I am saying is that the setting under consideration is not a very realistic one. For 2c, I quoted from the paper On page 5, line 184, the authors comment that "bounding $||\varepsilon_n(a)||_{op}$ is a nontrivial task as the rows of $\varepsilon_n(a)$ may be strongly correlated". Here, $\varepsilon_n(a)$ is the error in response. And now your are claiming that "the difficulty in our setting comes from handling correlations between the noise in the covariates and the actions". I am a bit confused here.

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-22

*For 1c, adding "noisy columns" means adding a column that is not in the linear column space of the columns of X, which is a very realistic setting when one has a high dimensional regression problem. The estimation error typically increases as d increases. Assuming a fix rank for X while d increases is not very realistic in practice. What I am saying is that the setting under consideration is not a very realistic one.* We believe we have addressed the reviewer's concerns in 1(c) to the best of our abilities, but recommend that the reviewer consults our response above pertaining to online learning (a common, realistic setting in which $d$ is fixed and $n$ grows) and our responses to 1(c) and 1(d) in the initial rebuttal (which address high-dimensional setting in which $n, d,$ and $r$ all grow in unison). *For 2c, I quoted from the paper On page 5, line 184, the authors comment that "bounding $\|\epsilon_n(a)\|$is a nontrivial task as the rows of $\epsilon_n(a)$ may be strongly correlated". Here, $\epsilon_n(a)$ is the error in response. And now your are claiming that "the difficulty in our setting comes from handling correlations between the noise in the covariates and the actions". I am a bit confused here.* We believe the reviewer has misunderstood notation. Any quantity involving $\epsilon$ (e.g. the matrices $\mathcal{E}_n$ and $\mathcal{E}_n(a)$) pertains to *noise in covariates*, while quantities involving $\xi$ or $\Xi$ pertain to noise in responses (i.e. noise in rewards). We recommend the reviewer consult the problem setup section (Section 3.1) for further clarification. We hope this helps with the confusion.

Reviewer Dfi82023-08-22

For 1c, I still concerns about the practical feasibility of the setting. For 2c, then my original question was correct and let me reiterate my original question "(c) Similar to the above question, in the proofs of Lemma A.2-A.4 and B.3, the measurement errors are assumed to be independent of each other. However, the paper emphasizes that the data are collected adaptively. This pretty much means that the measurement errors are independent of actions taken. " I am not convinced by your argument about "measurement errors in covariates are not independent of actions taken".

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-22

*[For 1c, I still concerns about the practical feasibility of the setting.]* We inherit the same low rank structure that is a common assumption in synthetic control methods and PCR; both of which are popular methods which are used in practice. *[For 2c, then my original question was correct and let me reiterate my original question "(c) Similar to the above question, in the proofs of Lemma A.2-A.4 and B.3, the measurement errors are assumed to be independent of each other. However, the paper emphasizes that the data are collected adaptively. This pretty much means that the measurement errors are independent of actions taken. " I am not convinced by your argument about "measurement errors in covariates are not independent of actions taken".]* To reiterate, we emphasize that the measurement errors in covariates do NOT need to be independent of the actions taken, which is not in contradiction of our applications of Lemmas A.2-A.4 and Lemma B.3. While these results do require independence, we only apply them to bound quantities which are indeed independent, not to bound action-dependent measurement errors. We are happy to answer any specific questions regarding these lemmas that the reviewer may have.

Reviewer Dfi82023-08-22

Isn't Lemma B.3 used to bound the operator norm of the measurement errors, which are assumed to be independent of (actions)?

Authorsrebuttal2023-08-22

You are correct that we use Lemma B.3 to bound $||\mathcal{E}_n||^2$. The rows of $\mathcal{E}_n$ (the noise in the *entire* covariate matrix) are independent by construction; the rows of $\mathcal{E}_n(a)$ (the noise in covariates *in rounds where action $a$ was selected*) are not. This is because we allow the action $a_n$ to depend on the (noisy) observations up to round $n$. Also note that $||\mathcal{E}_n(a)||^2 \leq ||\mathcal{E}_n||^2$.

Program Chairsdecision2023-09-21

Decision

Accept (poster)

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