Summary
This work investigates the role of mental simulation and heuristics in human physics prediction. Whereas previous works have studied mental simulation and heuristic-driven physics prediction in isolation, this paper hypothesizes that humans make use of both of these strategies and switch between them depending on the context and problem difficulty. They design a new “pouring marble task” with more diverse physical properties. Humans are asked to judge the tilt angle needed to pour marbles from cups under various setups.
Strengths
Overall, the paper was well-written and easy to understand. The argument was very clearly laid out in the introduction, and the figures look nice.
Weaknesses
- When I first read “We employ a grid search method to optimize both θ for the strategic transition and the noise parameters σ for the IPE, in addition to a group of heuristic parameters ω derived from linear regression.”, I wasn’t quite sure what that meant. What was the objective being maximized? Further on in the paper, the authors state “A grid search identified the boundary of 68.2 degrees in simulation time and a dynamic positional noise of 0.2 as optimal for mirroring human judgments." Does this mean that the Simulation-Heuristics Model is fit to the human data? If so, are there separate cohorts for model fitting and model comparison?
- I don’t understand the newly proposed heuristic model. As stated in the paper, previous work in heuristic models use predefined rules or fit to human data. In this paper, the heuristic model is fit to simulation data. How is this an accurate representation of human heuristics since humans haven’t seen the examples this model has.
- Considering this was only tested on a single problem (pouring), it seems premature to claim this as a general model for resource efficient physics prediction. If correct, we would see this behavior replicated across a variety of tasks using some unified notion of a computational budget. Time is also not a very good proxy for simulation difficulty.
- The authors report correlations and RMSE for different models (Heuristic, IPE, SHM), but I couldn't find any statistical tests that compared these models.
- Would the findings in this paper not be consistent with a biased heuristic or simulation model? Is there any reason a miscalibrated physics simulation that got the friction, mass, etc parameters wrong wouldn’t also lead to angle-dependent prediction error?
- In figure 1c, red is used for both the mean angle estimate and the A-shape points. This was confusing at first glance.
- No code is provided, which limits reproducibility.